Do users have to create a LIVE account to play a Games for Windows — LIVE game? No, you can play offline without ever connecting to Microsoft or creating a LIVE profile. Games for Windows — LIVE supports the creation and use of an offline “local” profile that exists only on the user’s computer. This account will let you play the single player portions of the game, but the user will not be able to play multiplayer, gain achievements, or take advantage of the other LIVE features.

Lost Planet: Colonies is a special edition of Extreme Condition for the Xbox 360 and PC. The game includes new multiplayer maps, a Human vs Akrid multiplayer mode, and a selection of new multiplayer characters and weapons.

However, Microsoft strongly recommends that users who wish to play offline create an online account and then use that account to log in “offline.” This makes the end-user experience better, since it ensures that saved games, purchasing /downloading add-on content for the game, and keeping the account across Xbox LIVE, Games for Windows – LIVE, and Xbox LIVE on Windows Phone remains consistent. Do you need to activate to play when using an offline account? No, if you create and sign in with an offline account, the Games for Windows — LIVE service is not contacted and therefore no activation or Internet connection is required. What's the disadvantage of using an offline account? You will not be able to play multiplayer, purchase or use game add-on content, and your saved games may not work from one computer to the next.

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Game add-ons, multiplayer, leaderboards, and other online features of a game require an online account. If you decide to later switch to an online account, please be aware that your game saves probably won’t transfer as they are typically tied to the active profile. If you wish to remain disconnected while playing games, we recommend you create an online account but simply play the game with that profile without connecting so no Internet traffic is used. (Presumably, if you've set an installed GFWL game to remember your log-in info, you'll be able to use your online profile offline even after the service is sunsetted, but obviously once the game is uninstalled you'll be forced to use an offline profile if you install it again at a later date.) Everything you've listed in the OP falls under this umbrella.

As for the exceptions, the obvious answers are multiplayer-only games such as Shadowrun, and, for some idiotic reason, Bulletstorm. There may be others but as they're not on Steam I've not looked into it. I'd say the only games that are all but assuredly not going to receive GFWL-removing patches are: - AFL Live (licence expired) - Hour of Victory (WB doesn't seem to be interested in doing anything with any of its Midway IP acquisitions that aren't Mortal Kombat) - Quantum of Solace (licence expired) - Section 8 and Section 8: Prejudice (TimeGate Studios is dead) - Tron: Evolution (published by Disney Interactive) - Where's Waldo? (licence expired) Everything else that hasn't already been patched or is set to receive a patch is up in the air. I would assume that a licence expiring doesn't preclude post-release support from a legal perspective but I don't see TruBlu, Activision and Ubisoft investing time and money into patches now when they lack the right to distribute the games and therefore earn a return on that investment.